LIVE YOUR MYTH IN GREECE

THIS THE REAL GREECE

PLEASE CLICK TO THE FOLLOWING

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppJW01LeRrk

IMF to visit Romania on 9 May

 - 27.04.2011

The RON firmed marginally on Friday, closing the day at 4.0815/EUR. It continued grinding higher early today and traded past the 12-month high of 4.0775/EUR. Although breaking this threshold could accelerate the gains we doubt this could be the case for today as market players may be more restrained than usual as they return from Easter holiday. IMF review is to start tomorrow with a visit planned to take place to 9 May. The other news making the headlines is that, according to the local press, the executive dropped the 2015 euro-adoption target date in a convergence plan it is to send to the EC. While not mentioning any new target date, the plan reportedly talks of entering ERMII in 2013-2014, not 2012 as previously envisaged. This implicit delay is in line with our expectations, comments from high officials and, judging by the price action, probably also shared by most market participants.

The RON money market was very active on Friday as liquidity needs increased probably on expectations of large budget payments. Cash traded as high as 6% and ON ROBOR fixed at 6.39%, just above the 6.25% key rate. The NBR stepped into the money market and injected RON0.9bn through a 5D repo operation and expectations for further operations are likely to cool any potential gains from current levels. Rates further out the curve (1M, 3M) were not actively traded with the last levels reported being above 5%. After a prolonged period of loose liquidity conditions and only a session with high short-term rates we doubt market players will believe rates are to remain elevated so we favour a static development in rates further out the curve, expecting some softening maybe towards the end of the week.

Source : bne

F.Y.R. of Macedonia Economic Analysis

March 2011 | By Dimitrios Shistohis

POLITICAL RISK - Short-Term Risk Rising

Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski said in February that he and his VMRO-DPMNE-led coalition were ready for early elections. The situation surrounding the call for a new vote has highlighted major weaknesses in Macedonia's democratic institutions, especially with regard to political dialogue. The election announcement came soon after opposition parties, led by the Social Democrats (SDSM), decided to walk out of parliament in response to the freezing of the assets of private TV network A1. The government said the block was imposed due to an investigation into tax fraud, while opposition parties claimed it was a politically motivated attack against media critical of the regime.

Macedonia's short-term political risk rating is 58.1.

 RISK ECONOMIC- Fiscal Discipline Ahead

According to latest Ministry of Finance data, the government was on track to meet its budget deficit target of 2.5% of GDP in 2010. After the first nine months of the year, the general government deficit was estimated to stand at 1.3% of GDP, helped by a 3.3% y-o-y rise in central government revenues (which account for the majority of overall budget receipts). Expenditure by the central government remained relatively modest through the first nine months of the year, rising just 2.9% y-o-y. We retain our own forecast for a general government budget deficit equal to 2.6% of GDP, though acknowledge that the final figure could be marginally smaller than this.

Our short-term economic risk rating for Macedonia is 41.5 this month.

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT - Foreign Liabilities No Major Threat For Now

We expect gross external debt to rise by an average 10% per year in 2011 and 2012 as the government invests in infrastructure according to its 2011-2013 pre-accession programme. Foreign debt as a percentage of GDP will rise to 72.4% by the end of that period. This marks a significant increase from the 56.6% level registered at end-2009, though we expect the ratio to stabilise in the medium term as headline growth rates gradually return to pre-crisis levels. A strong credit rating (Fitch assigns Macedonia a BB+ sovereign credit rating, one step below investment grade) and slowly improving market conditions should help contain borrowing costs, and we do not see any major risks to Macedonia's ability (or willingness) to pay its foreign obligations.

Macedonia scores 54.4 out of 100 in our business environment rating.

Source BMI

ALBANIA Economic Analysis

March 2011

By Dimitrios Shistohilis

 Growing concerns over inflationary pressures have seen Albania begin its monetary tightening cycle at its March meeting, raising the key repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%. We believe that high global commodity prices, continued feed through effects from the depreciation of the lek, and strong demand-side price pressures will see inflation spike higher, spurring further hikes by year end. As such, we are revising our end-2011 rate forecast to 5.75%, from 5.25% previously.

Albania's central bank, the Bank of Albania (BoA), raised its key two week repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25% at its policy meeting on March 23, the first rise in the benchmark borrowing rate since November 2007. The rise in rates by the BoA comes on the back of growing concerns over accelerating consumer price inflation and represents the start of a monetary tightening cycle for the country, in our view. Going forward, we expect inflation to continue to ticking higher over the course of the year before moderating somewhat to post a 4.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) rise by end-2011.

Data released by the BoA show the country's consumer price index (CPI), taking a leg upwards in February, rising by 4.4% y-o-y. This is above January's inflation print of 3.3% y-o-y and represents a month-on-month (m-o-m) acceleration of 2.3%. We believe that the bulk of inflationary pressures are being driven by higher commodity import prices and this is belied by the categorical breakdown of the headline CPI. Domestic food prices rose by 6.9% y-o-y, up from 4.4% in January while the cost of transport, which is heavily dependent on the cost of fuel, posted a y-o-y gain of 5.3%. Going forward, with uncertainty in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region set to rumble on for the foreseeable future, keeping global commodity prices (especially oil) elevated, and this will continue to push inflation higher in Albania.

We also believe that the headline CPI print is being driven higher by delayed pass through effects from prior depreciation in the value of the Albanian lek versus the euro, against which the Albanian unit lost over 40% since Q308. Since the beginning of 2011, with the euro buoyed by the prospect of the start of the European Central Bank (ECB)'s monetary tightening cycle, the lek has lost a further 1.1% against its single currency counterpart. We believe that the BoA will be keen to stem further depreciation, which would exacerbate cost-push inflationary pressures from global commodity prices, by beginning its rate tightening cycle to support the currency and broadly maintain the interest rate differential between itself and the ECB.

Finally, we believe that greater demand side price pressures due to Albania's robust pace of economic growth will facilitate the BoA's decisions to raise hikes further, and this underpins our end-year rate target of 5.75%. Unlike its regional peers and indeed the bulk of Europe, Albania did not experience a protracted economic downturn, with real GDP contracting by just 0.5% y-o-y over a single quarter in Q409. Albania's economy has since accelerated strongly to post real GDP growth of 4.9% y-o-y in Q310 (the latest period for which data is available) and we estimate the economy grew by 3.7% in 2010. In 2011, we expect even stronger growth from the Albanian economy, forecasting gross domestic product to grow by 5.0% in real terms. Overall, we believe that the potential for rate movements is distinctly skewed towards the upside over the remainder of 2011.

Source BMI

Turkey plans to build nuclear power station in Bulgaria?

- 11.04.2011

Turkey is planning to build a nuclear power station at Igneada, a small town close to the Bulgarian border on the Black Sea coast. No official Bulgarian reaction has yet been recorded, but Internet forums were overwhelmed with alarmed messages regarding the possible consequences of the decision.

Igneada, which lies on the Black Sea coast in the region of Thrace, is the safest location for the plant in terms of earthquake resistance, Turkish officials said, according to a report in Turkish newspaper Hurriyet on Wednesday (6 April).

A nuclear plant at Igneada would be the third such project recently announced by Turkey. Ankara has already approved plans to build two nuclear plants, one in Akkuyu on the Mediterranean and another one at Sinop, on the northern edge of Turkey's Black Sea coast.

Turkey concluded a deal with Russia to build Turkey's first nuclear plant in Akkuyu. The total capacity of the nuclear power plants to be built in Akkuyu and Sinop is expected to be nearly 10,000 megawatts. The second nuclear plant will reportedly be developed by Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO) and Toshiba. TEPCO gained notoriety after the recent disaster at its Fukushima plant, the Turkish press reports.

Turkey intends to build three nuclear power plants with a total power generation capacity of 15,000 megawatts by 2023, the officials said.

The site planned for the Mediterranean nuclear station is only a couple of dozen miles away from a fault line which geologists fear is in danger of sliding at any time, Hayrettin Kilic, a nuclear physicist who campaigns against atomic power, is quoted by Reuters as saying.

"There are a few proper places for the third nuclear power plant. Igneada seems to be the best one," unnamed officials are quoted as saying.

Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said no official decision had been taken regarding the location of a third nuclear plant.

"We said our extensive 2023 vision also includes a third nuclear plant. This idea still exists but our main aim is now to conclude negotiations of the first two plants," Yildiz said.

According to the Dnevnik daily, EurActiv's partner in Bulgaria, the planned Turkish plant is located 15km from Rezovo, a village situated on the Bulgarian side of the Black Sea, near the Turkish border.

At the time of publication, 375 readers had commented on Dnevnik's article, voicing concerns about the environmental risks of building a nuclear plant there.

Bulgaria has a 300km-long Black Sea coast, which hosts a myriad of booming tourist resorts. Many posted comments related to concerns that the project will scare tourists away from Bulgaria. Some readers insisted that Sofia should block Turkey's EU bid in retaliation.

Bulgaria has one nuclear power plant, at Kozloduy on the Danube river, and has started building a second one at Belene, also on the river, which constitutes a natural border with Romania. Work at Belene was frozen after the Fukushima disaster pending further security assurances from Russian developer Rosatom.

In Brussels, the European Commission admitted it could not prevent countries from building nuclear power stations in border regions, but highlighted the importance of the "stress tests" which the EU is aiming to put in place to improve nuclear safety after Fukushima.

"That's why we would like to include Turkey and other countries when we develop stress tests," said Marlene Holzner, spokesperson for Energy Commissioner Guenter Oettinger.

Such consultations were seen as useful when discussing plans for new nuclear power plants. It was easier to take measures to comply with the requirements of stress tests than to upgrade such facilities, she added.

Source : bne

Bulgaria has just become the first EU member state to have conducted a population census in 2011

 - 11.04.2011

Bulgaria has just become the first EU member state to have conducted a population census in 2011. The census results have expectedly revealed the scope of Bulgaria's demographic catastrophe – the country's population is declining rapidly, aging rapidly, and continuing to emigrate at a steady rate. Actually, in some ways the census results were better than expected – to the extent that any silver linings can be seen when a country's population declined from 7.9 million to 7.3 million in just 10 years. Examples of those are that Bulgaria's population hasn't gone below 7 million yet, and that there has been a notable increase in the birthrate over the past decade. So the "good news" is that Bulgaria's demographic situation is "only" apocalyptic while many had predicted it would be "hopeless." Of course, there is a really fine line between the two, if any. Bulgaria's demographic condition is unique as it corresponds to its situation as the poorest country in the "rich countries' club."

Štete prošlogodišnjih poplava u Albaniji procenjene na 30 miliona dolara

 - 11.04.2011

Ekonomske štete izazvane poplavama u decembru 2010 godine u severnom distriktu Albanije, Skadru, procenjene su na 30 miliona dolara, izveštava Top-Channel.

Štete na objektima iznosile su 20 miliona dolara. Preostalih 10 miliona se odnose na štetu nanesenu poljoprivrednim područjima.

Οι ζημιές από τις πλημμύρες στην Αλβανία φτάνουν τα 30 εκατομμύρια δολάρια

Οι οικονομικές ζημίες που προκλήθηκαν το Δεκέμβριο του 2010 από τις πλημμύρες στη Shkodra  της Αλβανίας ανέρχονται σε 30 εκατομμύρια δολάρια.

 Από το ποσό αυτό, 20 εκατομμύρια δολάρια ήταν οι ζημιές  σε κατοικίες, ενώ τα υπόλοιπα 10 εκατομμύρια δολάρια ήταν οι γεωργικές ζημιές.